Dutch industry is once again showing clear growth signals in May 2026. In April, the Nevi Purchasing Managers' Index for manufacturing rose from 52.0 to 54.4, its highest level since the summer of 2022. A reading above 50 indicates growth in industrial activity.
What stands out most is where that growth is coming from. This is not simply a classic recovery story of picking-up markets or falling costs. Beneath the surface, three forces are at play at once: companies are building up extra inventories out of fear of new disruptions in the supply chain, the AI wave is further driving demand for chip technology, and Europe is more visibly choosing to protect its own industry.
Stockpiling returns to the shop floor
According to the latest PMI data, demand for Dutch industrial products rose in April to its highest level in almost two years. At the same time, companies bought more parts and raw materials, ramped up production and further expanded their inventories. Purchasing and selling prices also rose faster than a month earlier.
That movement points to something many manufacturers recognise from earlier periods of turbulence: as soon as supply reliability comes under pressure, the focus shifts from “lean” to “security first”. Companies then prefer to carry extra inventory on their balance sheet rather than risk production grinding to a halt. That appears to be happening again now, partly due to tensions in the Middle East and the disruption of international logistics flows.
More production, but also more pressure on cash flow
The downside of this upturn is that growth in production does not automatically mean financial pressure eases. Higher inventories, more expensive materials and rising transport costs actually increase the need for working capital. In the PMI commentary, ABN AMRO sector economist Albert Jan Swart therefore warns that CFOs must remain sharp on cash flow, liquidity planning and the risk of excess inventory as soon as demand falls back. He explicitly links this to the so-called bullwhip effect: first overflowing warehouses, then a dip in production.
For industry, that is an important point. The current acceleration in growth feels positive, but it is partly defensive in nature. Anyone buying extra now to hedge against risks may pay the price later if orders slow or geopolitical calm returns.
Disrupted supply chains push prices higher
The cost side of the story is at least as relevant. BusinessWise reported that, alongside energy and fuel, transport and materials such as metals are also becoming more expensive. The same trend is visible in the PMI data, which speaks of the sharpest rise in delivery times and purchasing prices in almost four years.
That makes the recovery ambiguous. On the one hand, some producers benefit from stronger demand and larger orders. On the other, margins are once again being tested by higher input costs and longer lead times. Companies heavily dependent on international supply or raw materials from vulnerable regions will feel that pressure most directly.
Protectionism suddenly works in favour of part of the industry
A second factor behind the current upturn is Europe's changing industrial policy. The EU brought the CBAM mechanism into force on 1 January 2026, bringing CO2-intensive import flows such as iron and steel under a new levy system. The first week of CBAM declarations showed that iron and steel accounted by far for the largest share of reported volumes. In addition, the European Commission published the first price for CBAM certificates in April 2026.
At the same time, the European Commission announced a political agreement in April on a tightened steel trade regime, with tariff-free quotas and a 50 percent levy outside those quotas for 30 steel categories.
For European steel and base-metal producers, this changes the playing field. Where cheap imports put pressure on margins and capacity utilisation for years, there is now more room for regional players. That does not mean all problems have disappeared, but it does mean that European protection for certain branches of industry is no longer theory and is beginning to have a direct effect on competitive relationships.
The Netherlands benefits extra from the AI wave
A third explanation for the Netherlands' relatively strong position lies in the semiconductor chain. On 15 April, ASML raised its revenue forecast for 2026 to a range of 36 to 40 billion euros, up from an earlier forecast of 34 to 39 billion euros. In its quarterly report, the company writes that demand for chip machines remains high, driven by investments in AI infrastructure and data centres.
For the Netherlands, that is bigger than a single company announcement. Around ASML lies a broad ecosystem of hundreds of suppliers, specialists, machine builders and precision companies. When ASML's customers bring forward their expansion plans, it ripples through the entire chain. BusinessWise rightly pointed this out: on an industrial level, the AI boom delivers more direct spin-off to the Netherlands than to many other European countries.
Why the Netherlands is now doing better than Germany
That difference stands out especially in comparison with Germany. BusinessWise refers to the preliminary German PMI figures and to the prolonged weakness of the German car industry, which has been under pressure for years from Chinese competition and was further hit by American import tariffs. At the same time, Germany remains the most important export market for the Netherlands, meaning developments there feed directly into Dutch order books.
The Netherlands currently has a different profile. Its economy benefits less from mass automotive production and relatively more from high-tech, supply, specialised manufacturing and chip-related activities. As a result, Dutch industry currently feels more agile, although that does not automatically make it immune to a setback.
The big question: structural upturn or temporary peak?
The current production growth is undoubtedly good news for the sector. But it is still too early to conclude from this that Dutch industry has definitively entered calmer waters. Sentiment among purchasers remained cautious, according to the PMI commentary. Expectations for production over the coming twelve months improved only marginally, despite the rise in demand and output.
That is logical. Part of the current demand appears to stem from precautionary purchases and uncertainty, not just from sustainable end-market recovery. On top of that, energy prices, international tensions and trade measures remain unpredictable for the time being.
What industry should take away from this now
For manufacturers, the lesson lies not only in celebrating the upturn, but above all in reading its cause carefully. Anyone growing today thanks to extra inventory build-up and accelerated purchasing must at the same time keep their balance sheet, cash position and demand forecasts under control. Anyone benefiting from AI investments or European industrial policy should use that temporary tailwind to further strengthen supply reliability, innovative capacity and their position in the chain.
Perhaps the most striking conclusion is this: Dutch industry is now growing not despite the turbulence, but partly because of it. Stockpiling behaviour, protectionism and waves of technological investment are giving factories more work for now. The only question is which companies will manage to turn that moment into a structural lead.