15 August 2025 – While German order books for metalworking machinery took a heavy blow in the first half of 2025, sales figures in the United States appear to be picking up. An interesting contrast that raises the question: is Trump's policy line quietly proving successful after all?
Orders in the US: value up, volume down
Figures from industry association AMT show that in the US, the total value of orders for metalworking machinery is up no less than 21.2% so far this year compared to the average of previous years. This surge is driven above all by investments in high-end, automated equipment with plenty of extras and options. Remarkably, the number of machines ordered fell at the same time by 17.2%.
The push toward automation is growing
AMT points out that companies are increasingly turning to advanced, automated solutions. These help keep productivity up — even when the workforce isn't growing. Automation thus acts as a means of bridging the gap between production ambitions and staffing levels.
The aerospace industry remains the engine of growth
The American aviation sector is running at full speed and is once again setting record levels of investment. Among suppliers — major buyers of advanced production machinery — both order value and the number of orders have risen. However, this momentum is expected to ease over the coming twelve months.
Cautious optimism about 2025
The renowned economic research firm Oxford Economics forecasts growth of less than 10% for the US across the whole of 2025, which means the second half of the year may be less impressive than the first.
Reshoring as a trend: renewed interest in the US
According to recent figures from the Reshoring Initiative and Regions Recruited, no fewer than 59% of contract manufacturers are requesting quotes to bring production back to the US, or have already done so. A frequently cited barrier: a shortage of skilled workers.
Germany under pressure from American tariffs
In Germany, orders for metalworking machinery dropped by no less than 22% in the first half of 2025, according to the VDW. Foreign orders did show a modest recovery (+4%). The VDW attributes the sharp decline mainly to the 15% import tax the US applies to machines and tools, which makes German equipment too expensive for many American producers.
VDW director Markus Heering stresses that American companies — especially SMEs — struggle to absorb the higher prices. He anticipates that recovery will take place mainly within Germany itself, while exports will continue to face demand challenges. Only in 2026, provided conditions are favourable, is some recovery expected. The EMO Hannover in September is seen as a possible turning point.
Conclusion
The article paints a complex picture: on the one hand, order values in the US are growing strongly, driven above all by automation and aviation-related investment. On the other hand, the number of orders is lagging, and there is caution prompted by the medium-term outlook according to Oxford Economics. At the same time, reshoring points to renewed interest in domestic production, although the shortage of technical staff acts as a brake.
For Germany, the picture gives cause for concern: export demand is falling sharply, partly due to the steep American tariffs. Recovery seems possible in 2026, depending largely on internal market stabilisation and international trade conditions.